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Is a train’s risk of derailment affected by its length?

2024-05-29
(Press-News.org) Longer freight trains are more likely to derail compared with shorter trains, according to new research published in Risk Analysis. The increased risk held even after accounting for the need for fewer trains if more cars were on each train.

For the study, investigators assessed information on US freight train accidents between 2013–2022 from Federal Railroad Administration databases. The team found that running 100-car trains would lead to an 11% higher risk of derailment compared with running 50-car trains, even when accounting for the fact that only half as many 100-car trains would need to run. For 200-car trains, the risk was 24% higher than for 50-car trains.

“Because the Federal Railroad Administration doesn’t collect data on the length of trains that aren’t in accidents, this research involved some innovative modeling that we explain in detail in the paper, but the increased risk of longer trains is clearly shown,” said corresponding author Robin L. Dillon, PhD, of Georgetown University.

URL upon publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.14312

 

Additional Information
NOTE: The information contained in this release is protected by copyright. Please include journal attribution in all coverage. For more information or to obtain a PDF of any study, please contact: Sara Henning-Stout, newsroom@wiley.com.

About the Journal
Risk Analysis provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. A wide range of topics covered include human health and safety risks, microbial risks, engineering, mathematical modeling, risk characterization, risk communication, risk management and decision-making, risk perception, acceptability, and ethics, laws and regulatory policy and ecological risks.

About Wiley
Wiley is a knowledge company and a global leader in research, publishing, and knowledge solutions. Dedicated to the creation and application of knowledge, Wiley serves the world’s researchers, learners, innovators, and leaders, helping them achieve their goals and solve the world's most important challenges. For more than two centuries, Wiley has been delivering on its timeless mission to unlock human potential. Visit us at Wiley.com. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Instagram.

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[Press-News.org] Is a train’s risk of derailment affected by its length?