Models show intensifying wildfires in a warming world due to changes in vegetation and humidity; only a minor role for lightning

Extreme fire seasons in recent years highlight the urgent need to better understand wildfires within the broader context of climate change. Under climate change, many drivers of wildfires are expected to change, such as the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, rainfall, and lightning strikes. Quantifying the relative importance of these processes in recent and future wildfire trends has remained challenging, because previous climate computer model simulations did not capture the full coupling between climate change, lightning, wildfires, smoke and corresponding shifts in solar radiation and heat.

A new study published in the journal Science Advances by an international team of climate scientists presents the first realistic supercomputer simulation that resolves the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, smoke and the atmosphere. The authors find that increasing greenhouse gas emissions will likely increase the global lightning frequency by about 1.6% per degree Celsius global warming, with regional hotspots in the eastern United States, Kenya, Uganda and Argentina [Figure 1A]. Locally this could intensify wildfire occurrences. However, the dominant drivers for the growing area burned by fires each year [Figure 1B] remain shifts in global humidity and a more rapid growth of vegetation, which can serve as wildfire fuel.

The study further identifies regions, where the intensification of fires caused by global warming will be most pronounced [Figure 1B]. Among the regions exhibiting the strongest anthropogenic trends in biomass burning are southern and central equatorial Africa, Madagascar, Australia, parts of the Mediterranean and western North-America. “Our results show that with every degree global warming the global mean area burned by fires each year will increase by 14%. This can have substantial effects on ecosystems, infrastructure and human health and livelihoods.” says Dr. Vincent VERJANS, former postdoctoral research fellow at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (now at Barcelona Supercomputing Center) and lead author of the study.

Moreover, the researchers also highlight that with more fires on a global scale, also the levels of fire smoke will increase [Figure 1C]. Smoke plumes emerging from wildfires will have an effect on air pollution and also lead to reduced penetration of sunlight. The latter changes the heat and infrared radiation in the atmosphere. “Our new computer model simulations show for the first time that accounting for these effects in a comprehensive earth system model, can influence regional temperatures. Fire regions and their downwind smoke plume extensions will experience on average somewhat reduced warming due to the solar dimming effect.” says co-author Prof. Christian FRANZKE from the IBS Center for Climate Physics at Pusan National University, South Korea. However, in addition to reducing sunlight (direct aerosol effect) which is accounted for in the new computer simulations, aerosols from biomass burning can also change the formation of clouds (indirect effect). “This part is still somewhat uncertain, and more research needs to be conducted to understand how fires will impact clouds and subsequently surface temperatures,” adds Prof. Franzke.

While this study makes important strides in representing climate-lightning-wildfire interactions in the current generation of Earth System models, it also identifies key aspects that require further consideration. A critical example is the extent to which Arctic wildfires will increase in a warmer world. In their model simulations, the increase in Arctic wildfire activity is weaker than the observed trends in recent years. “This may indicate that current climate models underestimate future Arctic wildfire risks. Among other things, this would have important consequences for predictions of aerosols released from wildfires, which in turn will affect the climate and influence air quality,” says Dr. Vincent VERJANS.

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