For the first time, researchers have created an annual global dashboard that tracks 21st century trends in social shortfall and ecological overshoot, and reveals the extent to which wealthy countries drive most of the overshoot while poorer countries bear the brunt of deprivation.
The co-authors of the study, Andrew Fanning, Research & Data Analysis Lead at Doughnut Economics Action Lab (DEAL) and Visiting Research Fellow at the Sustainability Research Institute at the University of Leeds, and Kate Raworth, co-founder of DEAL and Senior Teaching Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, analysed trends across 35 indicators from 2000 to 2022 using the “Doughnut” framework** of social and planetary boundaries.
They say progress on tackling human deprivation must speed up fivefold to meet global goals by 2030, while ecological damage must reverse at nearly twice the current pace to safeguard a stable planet by mid-century.
Key findings:
Economic growth has been far outpacing progress in ending poverty: between 2000 and 2022 global GDP more than doubled, but reductions in human deprivation were modest. At current rates, the world is far off track to eliminate critical shortfalls in food, health, education, and housing by 2030.
Ecological overshoot has been worsening: by 2022 humanity had already breached at least six of nine planetary boundaries. Repairing the damage requires reversing course nearly twice as fast as the current rate of overshoot.
Stark inequalities: the richest 20% of countries (home to 15% of people) are responsible for over 40% of ecological overshoot, while the poorest 40% (home to 42% of people) experience more than 60% of global deprivation.
The researchers emphasise the urgent need to move beyond GDP as the measure of success, and reorient economies to create a “safe and just” future—where social needs are met within Earth’s ecological limits. They have created an interactive webpage* that visualises the study results to support policymakers and practitioners striving to achieve this goal, which will be updated annually to continually monitor progress towards achieving humanity’s social and ecological targets.
Andrew Fanning said: 'Our analysis shows that despite rapid global economic growth, humanity is still leaving billions of people in deprivation while pushing Earth beyond its safe limits. The world is out of balance — we urgently need economies designed to deliver both human wellbeing and planetary health.'
Kate Raworth said: 'Tracking the Doughnut's global trend reveals a stark reality: the fixation on pursuing endless GDP growth - especially in the richest of countries - is fast driving the world away from, not towards, a thriving future. It is time to focus instead on creating economies that are regenerative and distributive by design, for this will be the hallmark of twenty-first century progress.'
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Notes for Editors
* https://doughnuteconomics.org/doughnut/ - pre-embargo password: Doughnut2025
** Created in 2012 by Kate Raworth, the Doughnut framework assesses whether the global economy is meeting everyone’s needs within the means of the living planet. The Doughnut consists of two concentric rings: a social foundation, to ensure that no one is left falling short on life’s essentials, and an ecological ceiling, to ensure that humanity does not destabilise the life-supporting systems that sustain all life on Earth. Between these two sets of boundaries lies a doughnut-shaped space that is both ecologically safe and socially just: a space in which humanity can thrive.
The Doughnut monitor will now be updated annually, making it a “report card” for humanity and a key tool that journalists and policymakers alike can use to track global trends in social shortfall and ecological overshoot.
Additional context
Country clusters: Researchers grouped 193 countries by average gross national income per capita (2000–2022) into three clusters: poorest 40%, middle 40%, richest 20%.
Social shortfall: Measures the proportion of populations falling below minimum social standards in areas such as food, health, education, housing, energy, and access to services. The poorest 40% bear most of the global social shortfall.
Ecological overshoot: Assesses per capita consumption relative to downscaled planetary boundaries for climate, nutrients, freshwater, and biodiversity. The richest 20% contribute disproportionately to ecological overshoot.
Data year: 2017 (except public transport, 2020). Interactive versions are available on the Doughnut dashboard.
Interviews
For more information or to request an interview with the authors, please contact lizzie.dunthorne@admin.ox.ac.uk
The paper 'Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries monitors a world out of balance' will be published in Nature on 01 October 2025 at 16:00 BST.
The DOI for the paper will be: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09385-1
The URL for the paper will be: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09385-1
A Spanish-language version of this press release is available on request.
Graphics
Global social shortfall and ecological overshoot (2022 data) is attached.
Inequalities across country clusters (2017 data) is attached.
Both graphics are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY). Please attribute the open-access study: Fanning and Raworth (2025).
Online data visualisations
Interactive visualisations publicly available at https://doughnuteconomics.org/doughnut (embargo password: Doughnut2025).
Authors
Andrew Fanning (Doughnut Economics Action Lab; University of Leeds; University of Cádiz)
Kate Raworth (Doughnut Economics Action Lab; University of Oxford; Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences).
About the Environmental Change Institute
The Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford, established in 1991, is a world-leading centre for interdisciplinary research on environmental change. ECI brings together expertise across the natural, social, and physical sciences to better understand the causes and consequences of environmental change, and to inform policy and practice for a more sustainable and resilient future.
About the University of Oxford
The University of Oxford has been placed number 1 in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for the ninth successive year and leads the Guardian University Guide 2026. At the heart of this success are the twin pillars of our ground-breaking research and innovation and our distinctive educational offer.
Oxford is world-famous for research and teaching excellence and home to some of the most talented people from across the globe. Our work helps the lives of millions, solving real-world problems through a huge network of partnerships and collaborations. The breadth and interdisciplinary nature of our research alongside our personalised approach to teaching sparks imaginative and inventive insights and solutions.
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