Pioneering survey methodology sets new standards for gauging global scientific consensus

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A pioneering international study led by Professor Peter Vickers of Durham University introduces a novel methodology for rapidly assessing scientific consensus on a global scale.

 

This innovative approach offers the ability to collect real-time, representative data on scientists' opinions across fields, geographical locations, and over time – a breakthrough that could reshape policy-making and public understanding in fields from health sciences to climate change.

 

The study, conducted in June 2023, brought together a global network of 30 institutions spanning 12 countries. Over 20,000 scientists were invited to participate, resulting in 6,807 responses to a single-statement survey on COVID-19 causation.

 

The success of this methodology points to a robust, scalable approach for gauging scientific opinion with high response rates, a low opt-out percentage, and quick turnarounds.

 

By creating a concise, 10-second survey accessible through a network of local academic representatives, researchers were able to secure the highest ever response rate for a large-scale, global scientific survey.

 

This method is designed not only for rapid implementation but also for adaptability, ensuring its relevance for future research in evolving fields.

 

Reflecting on the study Professor Peter Vickers of Durham University said: “Humanity has never before had access to data on global scientific community opinion, on any topic, at any time.

 

“We’re right on the cusp of being able to deliver that and I’m truly excited to see where this could lead.”

 

The study achieved a 33.9% overall response rate, a significant improvement over traditional survey approaches, which often yield lower engagement.

 

The response rate was particularly high among physicists, biologists, and earth scientists, reaching as much as 55% at select institutions.

 

By leveraging local academic contacts, the new approach has real potential to overcome common barriers in large-scale research, such as low international representation and slow data collection.

The survey also revealed important trends: institutions across multiple countries reported high levels of agreement, though notable variations were observed.

 

A follow-up survey at Argentina's CONICET, prompted by an initially lower agreement rate, achieved nearly unanimous agreement, illustrating the method’s capacity to reveal regional differences, and explore ways in which results can be affected by methodological decision points.

 

This survey methodology holds vast potential for repeated, large-scale scientific assessments that can quickly inform pressing policy debates.

 

The method has already expanded to include over 50,000 scientists across 80 institutions worldwide.

 

By building a sustainable framework for rapidly assessing scientific consensus, this initiative offers an unparalleled resource for policymakers, educators, and the public.

 

ENDS

 

Media Information

 

Professor Peter Vickers from Durham University is available for interview and can be contacted on peter.vickers@durham.ac.uk.

 

Alternatively, please contact Durham University Communications Office for interview requests on communications.team@durham.ac.uk or +44 (0)191 334 8623.

 

Source

 

‘Development of a novel methodology for ascertaining scientific opinion and extent of agreement’, (2024), Peter Vickers et. al., PLOS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313541  

 

An embargoed copy of the paper is available from Durham University Communications Office. Please email communications.team@durham.ac.uk.

 

Graphics

 

Associated images are available via the following link: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/vurc9kk2i4w24drheargf/AKOuZIvkfawJzAhLvvV3RwQ?rlkey=6iec9tp4ab457ukud2pw8d6rf&st=dacx7aca&dl=0

 

About the Research Team

 

The project is a collaboration among over 30 experts in philosophy, social science, and empirical methods, with local representatives across Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Africa, and Australasia. This global effort underscores the methodology's capacity to bridge diverse academic and cultural perspectives while providing rigorous, reliable data.

 

About Durham University

 

Durham University is a globally outstanding centre of teaching and research based in historic Durham City in the UK.

 

We are a collegiate university committed to inspiring our people to do outstanding things at Durham and in the world.

 

We conduct research that improves lives globally and we are ranked as a world top 100 university with an international reputation in research and education (QS World University Rankings 2025).

 

We are a member of the Russell Group of leading research-intensive UK universities and we are consistently ranked as a top 10 university in national league tables (Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide, Guardian University Guide and The Complete University Guide).

 

For more information about Durham University visit: www.durham.ac.uk/about/

 

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