Study reveals how fatal school shootings disrupt local economies

(Press-News.org) A new multi-university study co-authored by Texas A&M University’s Dr. Shrihari Sridhar and alumnus Dr. Muzeeb Shaik of Indiana University reveals that fatal school shootings have far-reaching consequences beyond the immediate tragedy, altering daily life and disrupting economies in affected communities for months.

The research, published in the Journal of Marketing Research, provides the first large-scale empirical evidence that fatal school shootings are linked to a measurable decline in consumer activity, especially in public spaces like grocery stores and restaurants. The study found that in the months following a fatal school shooting, grocery spending declines by 2% in affected counties — a reduction that persists for at least six months. There is also an 8% drop in spending at restaurants and bars, and a 3% drop in overall food and beverage retail.

“Our team’s research shows that fatal school shootings don’t just affect the families involved — they quietly but profoundly alter the rhythms of entire communities,” said Sridhar, senior associate dean at Mays Business School. “Even something as routine as grocery shopping declines for months, driven by a deep sense of unease.”

Controlled experiments to understand why these effects occurred revealed that anxiety about public safety, especially in shared spaces like grocery stores or restaurants, is the primary driver behind the decline in spending.

“One of the most sobering takeaways from our study is that anxiety disrupts economic life,” Sridhar said. “These tragic events create ripple effects that reach into everyday decisions, affecting not just mental health but also local businesses and social cohesion.”

The research team — which included members from Indiana University, the University of Notre Dame, University of California, Davis and Georgia Tech — analyzed household-level grocery spending data from 63 school shootings across the United States between 2012 and 2019, using NielsenIQ’s Homescan panel matched to school shooting records from the Center for Homeland Defense and Security. The analysis compared households’ consumption patterns before and after a local school shooting to the same households’ behavior in the prior year. Additional analyses used retail foot traffic and transaction data from SafeGraph and Advan.

The findings show that anxiety following fatal school shootings manifests in fewer shopping trips, less time spent in stores, smaller grocery baskets and reduced public engagement overall.

The impact also varies by political leaning. In liberal-leaning counties, grocery spending dropped by 2.4%, compared to about 1.3% in conservative-leaning areas. This disparity is attributed to differing perceptions about gun violence: political psychology shows liberals are more likely than conservatives to attribute the cause of fatal school shootings to systemic causes, like gun laws and cultural access to firearms, while conservatives are more likely to view them as isolated incidents driven by individual pathology. The researchers said liberals reported higher levels of anxiety and stronger intentions to avoid public spaces following a school shooting.

The findings suggest that the fallout from school shootings extends far beyond the immediate victims, reshaping entire communities, and offer insight into how threats to perceived safety affect consumption.

Unlike natural disasters, which often prompt formal economic recovery efforts, mass shootings typically do not. The researchers say similar efforts may be warranted in communities affected by shootings. They said a community’s return to normalcy “requires more than just reopening doors; it requires trust-building and visible support.”

By Caitlin Clark, Texas A&M University Division of Marketing and Communications

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