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How likely are extreme hot weather episodes in today’s UK climate?

2025-06-18
(Press-News.org) In a study published in Weather, researchers estimated the current chances and characteristics of extreme hot episodes in the UK, and how they have changed over the last 6 decades.

The team found that temperatures several degrees above those recorded during the UK’s heatwave in July 2022 are plausible in today’s climate, with a simulated maximum of over 45°C (113°F). The likelihood of 40°C (104°F) is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Moreover, the chance of 40°C will likely continue to rise as the climate warms. The investigators estimate that there is approximately a 50% chance of again exceeding 40°C in the next 12 years.

Through multiple storylines of how temperatures could evolve through the summer season, they also found that prolonged heatwaves of over a month above 28°C (82°F) are possible in southeast England today. These storylines are valuable for modeling and stress testing.

“Our findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat,” said corresponding author Gillian Kay, PhD, of the Met Office Hadley Centre.

URL upon publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.7741

 

Additional Information
NOTE: The information contained in this release is protected by copyright. Please include journal attribution in all coverage. For more information or to obtain a PDF of any study, please contact: Sara Henning-Stout, newsroom@wiley.com.

About the Journal
Weather publishes articles written for a broad audience, including those having a professional and a general interest in the weather, as well as those working in related fields such as climate science, oceanography, hydrometeorology and other related atmospheric and environmental sciences. Articles covering recent weather and climate events are particularly welcome.

About Wiley      
Wiley is one of the world’s largest publishers and a trusted leader in research and learning. Our industry-leading content, services, platforms, and knowledge networks are tailored to meet the evolving needs of our customers and partners, including researchers, students, instructors, professionals, institutions, and corporations. We empower knowledge-seekers to transform today’s biggest obstacles into tomorrow’s brightest opportunities. For more than two centuries, Wiley has been delivering on its timeless mission to unlock human potential. Visit us at Wiley.com. Follow us on Facebook, X, LinkedIn and Instagram.

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[Press-News.org] How likely are extreme hot weather episodes in today’s UK climate?