A growing continent: More mouths to feed, fewer emissions to produce
Africa’s population will reach around 2.5 billion by 2050. This reality translates into a simple but complex challenge: produce more without emitting more. Today, agrifood systems account for nearly a third of global emissions. On the continent, the footprint increased by about 40% between 2000 and 2021, rising from 2.03 to 2.85 Gt CO₂e. This rise has not been uniform: some subregions, such as East and Central Africa, saw faster growth, often linked to expanding croplands and herds. Elsewhere, soil management policies, modest mechanization, and more advanced urbanization slowed the curve—but did not reverse it.
At the heart of this equation, the Congo Basin—the world’s second tropical lung—plays a key role. The steady loss of primary rainforests—several million hectares since the early 2000s—threatens essential carbon sinks and undermines rural livelihoods. Every hectare saved, every farm established without cutting ancient forests, counts twice: for the climate and for local incomes.
Faced with demographic and food pressures, the study underlines an often-forgotten truth: there is no single “Africa,” but many Africas. Agroecological contexts, production systems, water access, and market structures vary greatly. The solution, therefore, is not one uniform “grand plan” but differentiated pathways. In forest zones, the priority is curbing deforestation and restoring landscapes. In pastoral regions, cutting methane from ruminants through better feeding and animal health. In rice plains, managing water and nitrogen to curb emissions without lowering yields. And in urban supply basins, modernizing collection, processing, and transport so that every kilo produced actually reaches a plate.
The good news: these pathways already exist, are being tested, and generate co-benefits (income, jobs, resilience to climate shocks). The challenge now is to accelerate, support, and scale them up.
Forests, rice paddies, livestock: The big three — and the small shifts that change everything
Deforestation remains the largest source of emissions in several Central and West African countries. When dense forest is converted into farmland (cocoa, oil palm, maize) or pasture, the CO₂ stored in trees and soils is released. But the solution is not just to “stop cutting.” It means making forest protection economically rewarding for communities: clear land tenure, agroforestry that integrates trees and crops, zero-deforestation traceability in cocoa–coffee–palm oil chains, payments for ecosystem services, and markets that pay for sustainable quality and origin. Where these conditions are met, producers see real benefits in preserving trees rather than felling them.
In flooded rice paddies, the issue is methane (CH₄). Stagnant water creates conditions that favor its formation. A simple practice, proven in Asia and tested in West Africa, makes a big difference: Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD). Instead of keeping paddies permanently flooded, farmers alternate wet and drier periods. The result: up to ~30% water savings and up to ~47% less methane in recent pilots, with no yield loss when technical support is provided (irrigation scheduling, leveling, guidance). For family farms, this means less pumping, lower energy bills, and more resilient production in drought-prone seasons.
For livestock, the challenge is enteric fermentation in ruminants. Here too, solutions are within reach: improved forages (nitrogen-fixing legumes, more digestible species), mineral supplements, and animal health (deworming, regular watering, rest). In practice, this leads to more milk and meat per animal, and fewer emissions per liter or kilo. In the Sahel and East Africa, these “climate + income” solutions have already proven effective in pilot projects, with strong interest among pastoralist and agropastoralist communities facing drought and competition over water and pasture.
The common thread of this forest–rice–ruminant trio? Simple technical measures, but backed by solid public support: local extension services, access to credit, land security, and commercial outlets. Without this ecosystem, good practices remain isolated. With it, they become the new norm.
The hidden footprint of our food: Fertilizers, post-harvest losses, and the road to cities
When we think “agricultural emissions,” we imagine the field. But a growing share comes before and after: producing inputs (fertilizers, packaging), storing, processing, packaging, transporting, selling, and managing waste. This “life around the plate” already accounts for nearly a fifth of the global total and is rising with Africa’s urbanization.
Nitrogen fertilizers: They boost productivity but are energy-intensive to produce. Manufacturing ammonia (the basis of urea) emits ≈ 2.4–2.9 t CO₂ per tonne of NH₃. Two complementary tracks are needed. First, greening chemistry (renewable hydrogen, carbon capture and storage). Second, smarter field application (soil diagnostics, split application, cover crops, compost, biofertilizers). The right dose at the right time, combined with cleaner sources, cuts the footprint while protecting yields.
Post-harvest losses: In many value chains (fruits, vegetables, tubers), 20–30% of production is lost between farm and market. This is both a climate and economic waste. Solutions are emerging: shared solar cold rooms, ventilated crates, field sorting, passable roads, real-time market information. Operators such as ColdHubs in Nigeria show large-scale impact: thousands of tonnes saved from loss in one year, higher incomes for producers and traders, safer food for consumers.
Logistics: Intra-regional trade still relies heavily on trucking. To lower emissions per ton-kilometer, trucks must be better loaded, backhauls reduced, refrigeration improved (insulation, efficient engines), fleets renewed, and rail prioritized where electricity is decarbonized. Recognized methods (GLEC/EDF frameworks) help businesses and authorities measure and reduce footprints.
And then there is us, urban consumers. Our choices matter: seasonal products, shorter supply chains when available, simpler packaging, supporting brands and cooperatives that disclose their climate efforts. Added up, these small shifts cut the carbon bill without sacrificing affordability or quality. The hidden footprint is becoming visible—and visibility is the first step to reducing it.
Scaling up: Public policies, finance, and innovation to accelerate change
The good news is that pathways exist. The less good: time is short and scale is lacking. On public policy, several countries are leading the way. In Kenya, a fertilizer subsidy program launched in 2022 via e-vouchers helps farmers secure yields while improving targeting and transparency. The lesson? Involve the private sector, strengthen agronomic support, and include environmental goals (nitrogen management, organic and biofertilizers) to avoid rebound effects. In South Africa, the Climate Change Act (2024) introduces sectoral carbon budgets and aligns the carbon tax with national trajectories—a strong signal for agribusiness, cold chains, and transport, with adaptation plans expected at provincial and municipal levels. At the regional level, the AFR100 initiative commits over 30 countries to restoring 100 million hectares by 2030, increasingly emphasizing ecosystem restoration (e.g., avoiding conversion of natural savannas), trees outside forests, and local value chains.
The keystone remains finance. Adaptation and mitigation needs in agriculture and land use will exceed USD 50 billion per year by 2030. Mobilizing such sums requires bankable, replicable projects: AWD rice systems, solar cold chains, organic fertilization and biofertilizers, landscape restoration, improved forages and animal health, zero-deforestation traceability, low-carbon logistics. Each project must show measurable results: tonnes of CO₂e avoided, liters or kilos produced, losses prevented, jobs created, market share gained for cooperatives, gender impacts (inclusion of women, youth, marginalized groups).
The study suggests a realistic and motivating target: deploy proven technologies to 20% of family farms to generate substantial climate gains in the short term, with co-benefits for incomes, resilience, and soil health. In practice, this means training field advisers, offering tailored credit (small amounts, repayments aligned with farm cycles), securing land access, and opening markets that reward low-carbon and quality production.
The final message is simple: feeding Africa and protecting the climate are not opposing goals. By combining smart public policies, agronomic innovations, and value chain innovations, the continent can slow the growth of its emissions while improving access to safe, nutritious food. The path is clear; the challenge is to move faster, further, together—governments, communities, researchers, producers, businesses, donors, and consumers.
Read the full study Agrifood system carbon emissions and reduction policy: insights from China and Africa published in Frontiers in Agricultural Science & Engineering (vol. 12, 2025) for detailed methodology and policy recommendations.
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