Accounting for fossil energy’s “minimum viable scale” is central to decarbonization

Summary author: Walter Beckwith

2026-01-29

(Press-News.org) In a Policy Forum, Joshua Lappen and Emily Grubert discuss the unseen infrastructural threats that may arise as fossil energy systems are phased out. According to the authors, acknowledging and planning for limits in the “minimum viable scale” of fossil fuel systems is essential to achieving a safe, just, and credible transition to a low-carbon energy future. The global energy transition relies on two parallel processes – building new low-carbon systems while carefully winding down the fossil-fuel infrastructure that has long powered humanity. To date, research and policy have focused great attention on growth and replacement and far less on how firmly entrenched legacy fossil fuel-based energy systems behave as they shrink. According to Lappen and Grubert, this neglect is risky because such systems may fail once they fall below a minimum viable scale, the point at which their physical, financial, and managerial foundations can no longer operate as expected, triggering service collapses, safety hazards, economic shocks, and environmental harm. This could erode public trust in the energy transition itself. Minimum viable scales may be much larger and closer than commonly recognized, say the authors. Here, Lappen and Grubert evaluate the constraints that underlie the minimum viable scale of several key components of the fossil fuel economy, including petroleum refineries, natural gas pipelines, and coal-fired electric services. They highlight how the failure of a single component can cascade across these highly interdependent networks. The authors argue that improved modeling and coordinated planning can mitigate these risks.

Podcast: A segment of Science's weekly podcast with Joshua Lappen and Emily Grubert, related to this research, will be available on the Science.org podcast landing page after the embargo lifts. Reporters are free to make use of the segments for broadcast purposes and/or quote from them – with appropriate attribution (i.e., cite "Science podcast"). Please note that the file itself should not be posted to any other Web site.

END

ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

Immunotherapy reduces plaque in arteries of mice

2026-01-29

Scientists have designed an immunotherapy that reduces plaque in the arteries of mice, presenting a possible new treatment strategy against heart disease. The antibody-based therapy could complement traditional methods of managing coronary artery disease that focus on lowering cholesterol through diet or medications such as statins, according to the findings of a new study led by researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. Such an immunotherapy could especially help patients who already have plaque in their coronary arteries ...

Using AI to retrace the evolution of genetic control elements in the brain

2026-01-29

Artificial intelligence allows tracing the evolution of genetic control elements in the developing mammalian cerebellum. An international research team led by biologists from Heidelberg University as well as the Vlaams Instituut voor Biotechnologie and KU Leuven (Belgium) has now developed advanced AI models that can predict the activity of these elements based solely on their DNA sequence. Using these models, the scientists were able to retrace the evolutionary changes in the control programs, also identifying those that are specific to the human lineage. Genetic control elements are DNA sequences that determine where and when genes are switched on. Changes ...

New 3D printing method makes affordable, realistic replicas as structurally complex as a human hand

2026-01-29

Researchers have developed a new method for 3D printing objects with very different properties, including levels of hardness and transparency, on a pixel-by-pixel basis while using commonly available materials and inexpensive 3D printers. The method, described today in the journal Science by researchers from The University of Texas at Austin, Sandia National Laboratories and two other national laboratories, could lend itself to the creation of realistic models of body parts for medical students to practice surgery on or new types of personal ...

Direct imaging captures the crystalline vibrations of a supersolid made of atoms and light

2026-01-29

The 20th century was marked by the discovery of exotic states of matter. First, liquid helium was observed to flow without friction at extremely low temperatures, a phase now known as superfluid. Soon after, it was also discovered that, under appropriate external conditions, some materials can conduct electricity without resistance; these materials were therefore named superconductors. Later, in the 1960s, scientists added the idea of supersolids to the list: in this state of matter, atoms would flow without friction ...

What ice-fishing competitions reveal about human decision-making

2026-01-29

The international research team used GPS watches and wearable cameras to observe the behavior of 74 experienced ice fishers during competitions in eastern Finland. Across 477 fishing trips on ten different lakes, they recorded more than 16,000 decisions about where to fish and when to leave a location. Using these high-resolution movement and contextual data, the scientists built computational models to understand the underlying decision-making processes. Social information as a compass—but not always The analysis shows ...

Scientists solve the mystery of why termite kings and queens are monogamous

2026-01-29

Termites are among the most successful animals on Earth, forming vast societies that can number in the millions. But how did such complex social systems evolve from solitary ancestors that looked much like today’s cockroaches? New research from the University of Sydney has uncovered a surprising answer: termites didn’t become more socially complex by gaining new genes, but by losing them – including genes linked to sperm competition. The findings shed new light on the long-standing question of whether monogamy ...

New poll: most Americans would consider a plant-based alternative to chicken wings during Super Bowl

2026-01-29

WASHINGTON, D.C. — It is estimated that Americans will consume 1.48 billion chicken wings during the Super Bowl, but a new Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine/Morning Consult poll finds that most Americans, 56%, would consider trying a plant-based alternative such as Baked Buffalo Cauliflower Bites while watching the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks on Feb. 8. “You can score a touchdown for your health this Super Bowl by passing on chicken wings, cheesy dips, and meaty chili and instead ...

Concordia study finds snow droughts in western and southern Canada could affect nearly all Canadians

2026-01-29

Researchers at Concordia have developed a new method of measuring the amount of usable water stored in snowpacks. The comprehensive technique, known as snow water availability (SWA), uses satellite data and climate reanalysis techniques to calculate snow depth, snow density and snow cover across a wide swath of Canada and Alaska. “SWA quantifies how much water is available where snowpack exists. Knowing where the snowpack is located is critically important because where its water ultimately ends up after melting depends on where the snowpack was initially located,” says the study’s corresponding ...

Artificial lung system keeps patient alive without lungs until transplant

2026-01-29

Humans can’t live without lungs. But Ankit Bharat’s patient did for 48 hours. Reporting January 29 in the Cell Press journal Med, surgeons describe how they removed a patient’s infected lungs and built “artificial lungs” to keep him alive until a double lung transplantation was available. The work shows how the approach may serve as a life-saving bridge to transplantation. “He was critically ill. His heart stopped as soon as he arrived. We had to perform CPR,” ...

A framework for understanding (and researching) what causes human cancers

2026-01-29

An enduring challenge for the study of human cancer is just how complex it is: how many different ways there are for cancers to originate, progress, and spread in the people who are diagnosed with them. In a review publishing January 29 in the Cell Press journal Cell, biologist Douglas Hanahan of the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research in Lausanne, Switzerland, offers a major update to his long-standing framework to help those studying cancer make sense of its remarkable diversity and complexity. This framework, known as the Hallmarks of Cancer and originally proposed 26 years ago by Hanahan and colleague Robert ...

Turning agricultural waste into advanced materials: Review highlights how torrefaction could power a sustainable carbon future

Pollen counts can be predicted by machine learning models using meteorological data with more than 80% accuracy even a week ahead, for both grass and birch tree pollen, which could be key in effective

Rewriting our understanding of early hominin dispersal to Eurasia

Rising simultaneous wildfire risk compromises international firefighting efforts

Honey bee "dance floors" can be accurately located with a new method, mapping where in the hive forager bees perform waggle dances to signal the location of pollen and nectar for their nestmates

Accounting for fossil energy’s “minimum viable scale” is central to decarbonization

ELSE PRESS RELEASES FROM THIS DATE:

LAST 30 PRESS RELEASES: