Slow hurricanes, vanishing snow, and a fourfold surge in coastal storm stalling

Tropical cyclones are slowing down near coastlines at a rate four times higher than four decades ago. U.S. tornadoes are drifting southeastward, possibly because of how climate change affects the large pressure systems that steer them. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is retreating, but not uniformly - early-season snowfall is actually increasing in some regions while late-season snow disappears. These are among the findings in a recent set of studies published across the journals of the American Meteorological Society (AMS).

Hurricanes spending more time near shore

A paper in the Journal of Climate documents a global fourfold increase in tropical cyclone "rapid slowdown" events in regions within 400 kilometers of a coastline between 1982 and 2023. The trend does not appear in the open ocean - it is specific to coastal zones, where the consequences of a slow-moving storm compound dramatically. A hurricane that stalls near a shoreline has more time to push water onto land, sustain rainfall totals, and maintain damaging winds over populated areas.

The paper finds the coastal slowdown trend is more tightly linked to an increase in rapid intensification events than to changes in large-scale steering flow. In other words, storms that intensify quickly near coastlines also appear more likely to slow down there - a pairing that could make near-landfall tropical cyclones increasingly dangerous. Researchers note that open-ocean tropical cyclone behavior has not changed in the same way, which isolates the effect to the coastal transition zone.

Tornado geography shifting toward the southeast

A study in Monthly Weather Review finds a strong covarying spatial and temporal relationship between extratropical cyclones - large low-pressure systems that drive mid-latitude weather - and U.S. tornado occurrence. Previous research had identified a southeastward drift in where U.S. tornadoes form; this paper offers a mechanistic explanation: extratropical cyclones may be driving that shift as climate change alters their behavior and tracks.

The relationship also offers a potential pathway for improving tornado prediction under climate change. If the link between extratropical cyclones and tornado formation holds under future climate scenarios, changes in cyclone tracks and intensities become directly relevant to estimating how tornado hazard distributions might evolve over coming decades.

Snow cover trending down, but not everywhere

A Journal of Hydrometeorology study divided the Northern Hemisphere into a grid and measured snow presence or absence trends in each cell since 1980. The results show asymmetry: 23.8% of cells showed declining snow cover, while 9.4% saw increases. The losses were concentrated in Europe, central Asia, and the southern limits of snow cover extent.

The seasonal breakdown reveals a more complex picture than a simple decline. Early-season snow cover trends upward in many areas, while late-season snow cover is falling. This pattern reflects changes in both precipitation and temperature: colder early-winter air still allows snowfall, but warmer springs mean that snow melts earlier and more completely. For water management, agriculture, and ecosystems that depend on spring snowmelt, the late-season losses carry significant practical weight.

Hurricane Ida's rainfall may become five times more likely

When the remnants of Hurricane Ida moved over the U.S. Northeast in September 2021, they produced rainfall totals approaching 100-year extremes in parts of the region. A new modeling study in the Journal of Hydrometeorology projects that, under a high-emissions warming scenario, these extreme daily rainfall totals could become up to five times more likely in the same areas by the end of the 21st century.

The study does not suggest such events will be routine by 2100 - they would still be rare. But a fivefold increase in probability transforms a once-in-a-century event into one that could plausibly occur every 20 years, which has substantial implications for infrastructure design, emergency planning, and insurance.

Snow days in Ontario driven by freezing rain, not snowfall

A five-year analysis of school bus cancellations in Ontario, published in Weather, Climate, and Society, found that mixed precipitation - including freezing rain and ice pellets - is a more frequent cause of closures than snow in the province's northern regions. The finding underscores that winter disruptions in a warming climate may not follow intuitive patterns; as temperatures hover closer to freezing, precipitation types become more mixed and difficult to manage operationally.

Tribal nations face climate data gaps

A survey of Tribal climate services users in the contiguous United States and Alaska, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, found that respondents value grants, tools, training, and professional networks - but lack access to climate data tailored to their specific geographic areas and decision-making needs. The study identifies a service gap between what federal climate agencies produce and what Tribal resource managers actually need for adaptation planning.

Across all these papers, a consistent theme emerges: the statistics of weather extremes are changing in ways that standard historical records do not capture. Design standards, emergency plans, and infrastructure built to historical norms face growing misalignment with the conditions they will actually encounter.