Climate models project Colombia will lose one-fifth of its cocoa-suitable land by 2050

Colombia's cocoa farmers face a split future. By 2050, nearly 20% of the land currently suitable for cocoa production will lose the climate conditions the crop needs. But the areas where most of the country's cocoa is actually grown today -- the Andean foothills -- are projected to remain viable. The question is not whether Colombian cocoa survives, but how its geography reshapes.

Those are the central findings of a study published in Regional Environmental Change by researchers at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Fedecacao, and AGROSAVIA. The team combined climate projections with current production data and wild cocoa distribution maps to model how growing conditions will shift over the next 25 years.

Where the losses concentrate

The models point to Colombia's northern lowlands as the hardest-hit zone. Departments including Atlantico, Bolivar, Cesar, Cordoba, Sucre, and parts of Antioquia face declining suitability, as do northeastern departments like Arauca, Casanare, Meta, and Vichada. Rising temperatures and more erratic rainfall patterns are the primary drivers.

For cocoa-growing families in these regions, the projections translate to lower yields, increased crop stress, and greater economic uncertainty. Recent events have already offered a preview: a cold wave with global implications caused major flooding in northern Colombia's lowland Caribbean region, demonstrating how climate variability is producing real impacts now, not just in models.

"Recent events show how climate change and climate variability are already generating real impacts," said Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez, a researcher at AGROSAVIA and one of the study's lead authors.

The foothills hold steady

The outlook is not uniformly bleak. The Andean foothills, where the majority of Colombia's current cocoa production is concentrated, are projected to maintain favorable conditions through 2050. The study also identifies a roughly 3% expansion of suitable area at higher elevations -- a modest gain, but one that suggests cocoa cultivation may gradually migrate upslope rather than disappearing.

"Cocoa in Colombia will not disappear, but will likely undergo a gradual process of geographic redistribution," Gonzalez said.

This geographic shift carries planning implications. Infrastructure, processing facilities, and supply chains currently configured for lowland production may need to adapt. Land-use planning at the departmental level will need to account for changing suitability zones rather than assuming static conditions.

Wild cocoa as a genetic reservoir

One of the study's more forward-looking findings concerns wild cocoa -- the undomesticated relatives of cultivated varieties that persist in Colombia's lowland forests. The models suggest wild cocoa populations could actually expand into new areas as conditions shift.

This matters because wild cocoa has evolved under extreme climate conditions over thousands of years. Populations that currently survive in very hot, very dry, or very wet environments may harbor genes for climate resilience that breeding programs could incorporate into commercial varieties.

"Wild cocoa has an advantage that cultivated cocoa does not: it has evolved for thousands of years under extreme climate conditions," said Tobias Fremout of the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT. "Populations that currently grow in very hot, very dry, or very wet areas are precisely those of greatest interest to us."

The finding underscores the conservation value of native lowland forests where these wild populations occur. Clearing those forests for other agricultural uses would eliminate genetic resources that may prove critical for adapting Colombia's cocoa sector.

Agroforestry and practical adaptation

For farmers already dealing with changing conditions, the study points to agroforestry systems -- growing cocoa under the shade of other trees -- as a near-term adaptation strategy. Shade trees moderate temperatures and conserve soil moisture, creating more stable microclimates for cocoa even as regional conditions warm. In areas facing more frequent drought, supplemental irrigation could further stabilize yields.

The study's projections will be integrated into the platform cacaodiversity.org to provide farm-level adaptation guidance. But the researchers are clear that projections are not certainties. Climate models carry inherent uncertainties, particularly at the regional scale relevant to individual farming communities. The 20% loss figure represents a central estimate under specific emission scenarios, not a precise forecast.

What the study does establish is that standing still is not an option. The climate conditions that shaped Colombia's current cocoa geography are changing, and the choices made now about genetic resources, land use, and farming systems will determine whether Colombian cocoa adapts or contracts.