19.4 million Americans have thought about shooting someone - and the data reveals intervention points

Seven percent. That is the share of American adults who report having thought, at some point in their lives, about shooting another person. Applied to the U.S. population, 7% translates to roughly 19.4 million people. About 3% - some 8.7 million adults - said the thought occurred within the past year.

Those numbers come from a nationally representative survey of more than 7,000 adults, published in JAMA Network Open by researchers at the University of Michigan. The findings are uncomfortable, but the researchers argue the discomfort is the point: understanding who has these thoughts, and under what conditions they might act on them, is the first step toward preventing the tens of thousands of firearm injuries and deaths that occur in the United States each year.

Gun ownership does not predict violent ideation

One of the study's most striking findings challenges a common assumption. Firearm owners were no more likely to have had thoughts of shooting someone than non-owners. The thoughts are distributed across the population, not concentrated among those who already have the means to act.

But means matter. Among those who did have thoughts of shooting someone, 8% reported having brought a firearm to a specific place to potentially carry out a shooting. And among non-firearm owners with these thoughts, 21% said they had considered acquiring a gun to make their thoughts a reality.

Who thinks about it, and who do they think about shooting

The demographic patterns were consistent with known patterns of firearm violence. Men were far more likely than women to report these thoughts. Younger adults, Black Americans, residents of Midwestern states, people living in urban areas, and those with household incomes below $50,000 were also more likely to report thoughts of shooting someone in the past year. Brian Hicks, the psychologist and Professor of Psychiatry at Michigan Medicine who led the study, notes that Black Americans are six times more likely to be homicide victims than white Americans.

There were no significant differences by political ideology.

When asked who they had thought about shooting, 51% said an enemy. Twenty-five percent named a stranger or someone involved in a conflict. Fourteen percent said a government official or employee. Ten percent said a family member. Nine percent said a current spouse or partner, and 10% a former one. Respondents could give multiple answers.

Three windows for prevention

The study identifies several points where intervention could interrupt the path from thought to action.

First, disclosure. Twenty-one percent of those with thoughts of shooting someone told another person. That conversation - with a friend, family member, coworker, or clinician - represents a potential off-ramp, a moment when someone in the person's life could respond, connect them with resources, or alert authorities if needed.

Second, voluntary firearm surrender. While only 7% of those with violent thoughts had given their gun to someone else for safekeeping, another 21% said they would consider doing so in the future. That willingness suggests that accessible, low-stigma options for temporary firearm transfer could reach a meaningful proportion of at-risk individuals.

Third, purchase barriers. Among non-owners who had thought about acquiring a firearm to carry out their thoughts, background checks and waiting periods could introduce friction at a critical decision point. Hicks notes these findings are consistent with policy efforts to prevent impulse-driven gun purchases.

Red flag laws and the scale problem

In Michigan and 20 other states, extreme risk protection order laws - commonly called red flag laws - provide a judicial procedure for temporarily removing firearms from people at high risk of harming themselves or others, based on their behaviors, statements, or writings. The study's finding that a substantial fraction of people with violent thoughts told someone about them suggests these laws could be more effective if the people who hear such disclosures know how to act on them.

The scale of the problem is what makes it dangerous. Most people who think about shooting someone never act on it. But when 19.4 million people have the thought and even a tiny fraction follow through, the result is tens of thousands of fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries per year - and that count does not include self-harm, which accounts for over half of all firearm deaths in the United States.

What the survey cannot tell us

The study is based on self-report from an online, English-language survey, which may underrepresent people with limited internet access or English proficiency. It captures prevalence but not prediction: having thoughts about shooting someone does not necessarily indicate elevated risk of acting, and the survey does not yet distinguish between fleeting intrusive thoughts and sustained violent intent.

Hicks and co-author Mark Ilgen plan further analyses examining relationships between violent ideation and mental health conditions, substance use, firearm storage practices, and risky behaviors like handling guns after drinking. Those analyses may help identify which subgroups warrant the closest attention.

The survey - the National Firearms, Alcohol, Cannabis, and Suicide Survey - was funded by the National Institute of Mental Health. Additional support came from the University of Michigan Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention.