Measure 11 and Oregon's Violent Crime Rate

November 22, 2012 (Press-News.org) Measure 11 and Oregon's Violent Crime Rate

We've all heard the saying, "If you can't do the time, don't commit the crime." It captures the sentiment that the tougher the sentence the stronger the disincentive to commit crime. While it may be easy to believe that a relationship exists between crime rates and incarceration, many criminal defense attorneys and others in the criminal justice world question the connection.

In the 1980s and mid-1990s the number of violent crimes committed in Oregon dramatically increased. Believing that a lack of deterrents created an environment of growing violent crime, Oregon passed Measure 11 in 1995, which required mandatory sentences for certain types of violent offenses. Since the passage of Measure 11, the number of violent crimes committed in Oregon has dropped, but whether Measure 11 caused the decrease in violent crimes is another question.

In Oregon there is a debate as to whether Measure 11 played a role in the decrease of violent crime in the state and if so, to what extent. That debate was recently discussed in an article published by The Oregonian and Politifact Oregon. A group that favors the policy, called the Truth in Sentencing Project, claims that the violent crime rate in Oregon increased almost 700 percent between 1960 and 1995, and after Measure 11 the violent crime rate decreased 50 percent. The Truth in Sentencing Project claims Measure 11 is one of the major reasons the crime rate fell. While Measure 11 is one of many reasons, it is not the only reason why violent crime rates have fallen over the last one and a half decades.

According to the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission, the swings in violent crime rates in Oregon over the last few decades as asserted by the Truth in Sentencing Project are correct, but the executive director of the commission also points out that national trends in violent crime were similar to Oregon's during the same time period. During the mid-1990s the violent crime rate across the U.S. began to decline no matter the incarceration rate of individual states. For example, the incarceration rate in Oregon grew by 80 percent between 1995 and 2010 and the violent crime rate fell by over 50 percent. In comparison, the incarceration rate in New York decreased over the same time period and slightly increased in California, but both states saw larger decreases in violent crime than Oregon.

Adding to growing incarceration rates were three-strike laws passed by 23 states between 1994 and 1996. However, states that did not pass tough-on-crime laws also saw the same increase and decrease of violent crime as the national trend line from 1995 to 2010. Clearly, Measure 11 and other strong sentencing laws are one of many factors that explain the decreasing violent crime rate. One of those other factors is demographics.

According to executive director of the OCJC, the majority of violent crime is committed by 15- to 39-year-olds, which is an age group that has been decreasing in numbers since 1985. In addition, the building of out of state prison systems also impacted the violent crime rate. Before the state prison system was expanded in the mid-90s, prison overcrowding led to extremely short prison sentences, which may have inflated the violent crime rate. The passage of Measure 11 in 1995 helped provide the impetus to expand the prison system in Oregon.

Measure 11 is probably not solely responsible for the decrease in the violent crime rate in Oregon. Measure 11, along with changing demographics and a larger prison system, have likely contributed to the lower violent crime rate in the state. If you are facing charges for a violent crime, contact an experienced Oregon criminal defense lawyer.

Article provided by Hubert G. Duvall, Jr.
Visit us at http://www.oregoncriminalattorney.com/