BIDMC researchers model a safe new normal

Boston, Mass. - Just one year after the World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus a global pandemic, three COVID-19 vaccines are available in the United States, and more than 2 million Americans are receiving shots each day. Americans are eager to get back to business as usual, but experts caution that opening the economy prematurely could allow a potential resurgence of the virus. How foot traffic patterns in restaurants and bars, schools and universities, nail salons and barbershops affect the risk of transmission has been largely unknown.

In an article published in npj Digital Medicine, researcher-physicians from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) used anonymized cell-phone data to build a Business Risk Index, which quantifies the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission in these establishments. The team's index accounts for both the density of visits and the length of time individuals linger inside, providing a more precise description of the human interactions -- and thus risk of viral transmission -- going on inside.

"While business traffic pre-pandemic and during statewide shut downs has been studied, business foot traffic and its relationship to COVID-19 transmission in the so-called 'new normal' of re-opening has not been well understood." said corresponding author Ashley O'Donoghue, PhD, Economist, in the END