JOURNAL ARTICLES
Multi-factor Change in Western U.S. Nighttime Fire Weather
Journal of Climate
Western fires become less prone to “lay down” at night. Wildfires typically calm down at night–a crucial break for firefighters–yet firefighter and satellite measurements confirm increased nocturnal fire activity in the western U.S. from 1980 to 2020. This study shows increases in meteorological variables conducive to nocturnal fire. Extremely dry nights (low water vapor) have increased over 75% of the study area–in some places 10- to 12-fold. Across 81% of the study area, the authors find increases in nights where drier air combines with windier weather or other dangerous factors.
Spatiotemporal Analyses of Lightning and Tornado Exposure to Large Outdoor Gatherings in the Conterminous United States
Weather, Climate, and Society
Baseball, amusement parks, and severe weather. A study of potential human exposure to lightning and tornadoes for United States large outdoor public gatherings found that amusement parks, Major League Baseball games, and state fairs during March-August have the greatest potential exposure to lightning and tornadoes overall. The New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival topped the list for lightning exposure, while Coors Field in Denver (in June) and Six Flags Over Texas in Arlington (in April) had the highest likelihood of tornado exposure.
Bridging the Gap Between National Weather Service Heat Terminology and Public Understanding
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Heat index and warning terms may still lack clarity with the public. A small survey found that most respondents’ understanding of heat-related terminology does not match National Weather Service definitions. Almost half of participants said that “heat index” was synonymous with air temperature (less than 10% understood that heat index includes humidity) and many did not fully understand the terms Excessive Heat Watch, Heat Advisory, and Excessive Heat Warning. The authors recommend exploring plain language messaging alternatives.
What was the Bumpiest Flight Ever on NOAA’s WP-3D Hurricane Hunter Aircraft?
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Extreme turbulence on hurricane flights leads to new scientific “bumpiness” metric. Motivated by their newsworthy experience during a Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Ian (2022), the authors develop a novel “bumpiness index” to objectively quantify three-dimensional turbulence felt aboard NOAA’s WP-3D Orion Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions. The Hurricane Ian flight was found to be the second bumpiest on record, with a flight into Hurricane Hugo (1989) taking the prize for “bumpiest ever.”
The Changes in Heating and Cooling Energy Demand in Beijing and Shanghai under Global Warming
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Energy demand for heating and cooling is shifting in Chinese megacities. From 1961 to 2020, winter heating demand decreased and summer cooling energy demand increased in China’s Beijing and Shanghai megacities. While the reduction in energy used for heating during winter currently outweighs the increase in energy demand for summer cooling, summertime energy demand is more sensitive to temperature overall. As global warming continues, this implies that the summertime energy draw will outpace reductions in winter energy demand.
Impacts of Irrigated and Non-irrigated Land Use on Convective Environments and Related Diagnostic Variables During GRAINEX in Nebraska, USA
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Irrigation may favor storm development on the Great Plains. Data from the Great Plains Irrigation Experiment (GRAINEX) in Nebraska comparing large irrigated areas with non-irrigated grassland and transitional areas suggest that irrigated areas display atmospheric conditions considered more favorable to the formation of convective storms.
Earth, Wind and Fire: Are Boulder’s Extreme Downslope Winds Changing?
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Extreme winds sputtering in Boulder. Throughout the mid-late 20th century, the NSF NCAR Mesa Lab occasionally measured 120+ mph wind gusts in the Boulder, CO, area. Yet after 1995, peak recorded wind gusts almost never approached 100 mph. The authors examine this apparent reduction in peak wind events, and find that it is likely real, perhaps due to increased local temperatures. Stricter building codes and increased tree growth in the area may also contribute to reduced wind damage.
Lightning Fatalities in Europe (2001–2020)
Weather, Climate, and Society
European lightning deaths skew toward males, teens, and SE Europe. A study of 1,282 lightning fatalities recorded in the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) over 2001-2020 found the greatest share of deaths in southeastern Europe (especially Bulgaria). 77.8% of those killed by lightning were male, with a spike around age 15. Lightning deaths on the job were most common among farm workers; hikers topped the list of those who died during leisure activities.
Climate Extremes and Protests in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, 1995-2013
Weather, Climate, and Society
Social unrest is strongly correlated with climate extremes in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. A study combining media-reported protests with satellite data on climate conditions vs local averages found that heavy rains and high temperatures are strongly, positively associated with protest activity. Protests are also strongly, positively associated with abnormally wet or dry spells over longer time periods, with a delayed effect, suggesting long-term social and political impacts of drought and heavy rain.
Impact Matters: Detection and Early Warning of Agriculturally Impactful Flash Droughts
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Warning farmers of flash drought. How exactly to define a rapid-onset (flash) drought is still up for debate, with many methods attempting to diagnose and monitor them–yet all lack a direct connection to agricultural impact. A new flash drought indicator, based on soil water deficit (scarcity of water available in the soil for plants) has proven useful for early detection of agriculturally impactful flash droughts.
Modeling the Predictors of Extreme Weather Affective Experience and its Influence on Extreme Weather Decision Making
Weather, Climate, and Society
Positive “extreme weather affect” related to tornado readiness. Analysis of survey responses about extreme weather found that respondents who described their feelings about extreme weather positively–conveying that they were interested, alert, attentive, or active in response to severe weather warnings–rated significantly higher on tornado preparedness. Those with a negative severe weather “affect” were significantly less likely to be prepared for a tornado.
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.
About the American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.
About AMS Journals
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorolocial Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.
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